Quarterfinals Game 4: Netherlands vs Costa Rica

One of these days, someone is going to explain to me why their uniforms are orange.

This was the quarterfinal I expected to be a blowout.  It's also a perfect example of why I should let my simulator make the predictions, as it is the only game this round that wasn't.  What's more, it is a game between two teams who do not have official roster names in FIFA 2002.

After 40 minutes of Los Ticos chasing orange jerseys around the field,  "No. 24" for Costa Rica stole the ball in the Dutch end and struck one past their keeper to give his team first blood. the Oranje played the rest of the game in desperation mode.  Surely, they didn't want to let their little brother Belgium show them up?

In the second half, the Netherlands took advantage of a smart corner to tie the game ("No. 1", '66).  They were desperate for the go-ahead goal, firing many shots off-target, but managed to find  what they were looking for late.  "No. 33" put them ahead on a breakaway at '79 and turned the pressure up for Los Ticos.

That stood up as the game winner when the clock struck '90.  Being that this Costa Rica group was the same team that did worse in simulation than in real life (my only incorrect prediction last round was their game against Greece), they did not have it in them to equalize.  I have to wonder if the real team can pull off the upset.  I guess we'll find out in a few hours.

Final result: 2 -1 Netherlands

Quarterfinals Game 3: Argentina vs Belgium

Maybe they're so good at sports because nobody ever seems to go to work?

Argentina is a good team.  No, I mean that.  Personal bias aside, the Albiceleste are one of the best teams in the world, and have been for some time.  In this match, they dominated possession.  Yet, as we have seen this tournament, that statistic apparently means nothing.

Both Argentina and Belgium had a lot of shots.  The difference: Belgians can hit the broad side of a barn.  The Argentine attackers managed only one shot on goal despite all their numerous chances, while the Red Devils managed a cool 80% of shots on target.  That is this entire game in a nutshell.

Final result: 1 - 5 Belgium

Quarterfinals Game 2: Brazil vs Colombia

Yay Colombia?

This scrappy team that beat out The Vampires Uruguay made it all the way to the quarterfinals.  Their reward?  Host team Brazil.

This game played out almost identical to Germany vs France (which is an insult to France, not a compliment to the Colombian squad).  Despite decent possession, Colombia had no answer for long passes to Brazil's Jardel, who scored a hat trick.  Again, just as in the other match, Brazil scored one more goal (Rivaldo, '80) and all Colombia could manage was to ruin the clean sheet (Castillo Cortes, '86).  Congratulations to Colombia for making it this far, but the buck stops here.  It will be up to Die Mannschaft to stop the Brazilian advance next round.

*This simulation was run after the real game was played.  4th of July and all that.

Final result: 4 -1 Brazil

Quarterfinals Game 1: France vs Germany

Ah yes, France vs Germany.  What a rivalry this is.  It goes beyond sports, beyond recent history, and even beyond reason.  This is a battle for the ages.

The French had the better possession this game, but grossly misused it.  Germany was quick on the ball and quick up the field, using long, precision passes to best the French defense.  Though most aspects of the game seemed fairly even, there was one factor in this match that could not be stopped: Germany's Asamoah.  He received four long passes on the right wing which he fired from just outside the box.  Three of them went in, giving him a hat trick, the game winner, and plenty more.  The French defense had absolutely no answer for that play.  Without him, this easily could have been a different game.

As always, Germany found a way around France's wall.  As a result, they invaded the French end of the pitch repeatedly and made them pay for it.  A late French goal on an intercepted pass by Vieira at '74 was their only consolation.  Germany wins again.

*This simulation was run after the real game was played.  4th of July and all that.

Final result: 1 - 4 Germany

Ro16 Game 8: Belgium vs USA

I swear, if someone calls Belgium a "dark horse" one more time, I'm going to bust a blood vein.  It happens every. single. tournament.

So yes, happy fun times are to be had here between teeny tiny, expert Belgium and big bad gun-totin' America.

The Red Devils got off to a good start, scoring just 7 minutes in (Englebert) and ending the first half with another by Mpenza ('35).  The American defense was generally unable to stop their passes, which left most of the heavy lifting to the US keeper, Brad Freidel.  He made some spectacular saves, punching and diving and trying to give the US a fighting chance.  He wouldn't have had to do so if the American defense had interrupted more Belgian set plays, but I digress...

Surprisingly, the Americans came out with the lion's share of possession at 59%.  Though they struggled to break out of their end and go on the attack, at the very least that possession meant Belgium didn't have the ball.  What little offense the Americans did have, at least, was fairly good.  Of their few shots, most were on goal and one, a beautiful, top-corner shot from Razor ('67), cut the Belgian lead in half with plenty of time left.

The nail in the coffin came at '78, when the American defense was unable to clear a corner kick.  After three spectacular saves by Freidel (all of which rebounded to Belgian players), the fourth shot from Mpenza went in, scoring his second goal and effectively putting the USA in the ground.  I suppose our luck could only last so long, and now the Red Devils can "dark horse" it up in their next match against Argentina.

Final result: 3-1 Belgium

Ro16 Game 7: Argentina vs Switzerland

I enjoyed this game, final score notwithstanding.  On one side of the pitch, things were very even.  On the other, they were decidedly not so.

The Swiss offense was very impressive, using clean, tight passes and perfectly placed crosses to generate opportunities. 75% of their shots were on goal, and when Sforza scored for Switzerland at '37, the goal was a beautiful set piece that had left him completely unmarked.

Unfortunately, that's all the praise that I can give the Swiss; beautiful play doesn't win games by itself.  The Argentine offense ripped them to shreds.    The game winner was scored at '21, and they never looked back.  Crespo scored a hat trick!

Almost every possession was a scoring opportunity for La Albiceleste, and the majority of them went in.  They were faster than the Swiss defense, their crosses were largely successful, and their powerful and accurate forwards gave the Swiss keeper almost no chance.  Argentina was on another level, and another South American side marches on.

Ro16 Game 6: Germany vs Algeria

So, there is no Algeria in FIFA 2002...but Tunisia is basically the same country, right?  They're both formerly part of Carthage, right?  Guys?

In any case, they play some Roman rump state, called "Germany" I think.  Such scrubs.

Yeah, no, Germany won this and had 17 shots.  AlgeriaTunisia didn't even manage one.  Do I need to expound?  Okay, fine, I'll give you the goal scorers:

Asamoah ('13)
Bierhoff ('48)
Asamoah ('57)
Bierhoff ('66)

They just took turns, really.

Final result: 4-0 Germany

Ro16 Game 5: France vs Nigeria

Will France fall for it?

Posting a bit late (the game is already in progress), but I promise I ran the simulations beforehand ;) Possession stayed pretty even between the two teams, but Nigeria was largely unable to do anything with their time, earning only 3 shots and none on goal.

Naturally, this gave France free reign in the other end.  Goals were scored by Vieira('16), Pires('58), and Henry(83).  Nigeria is a good team and they could have made something of this game, but their offense was completely outmatched.

Final result: 3-0 France

Ro16 Game 4: Costa Rica vs Greece

  For one Cinderella story to continue, another must end.

This match between underdogs was very one-sided, but it probably should have been even more so.  Possession was split fairly evenly between Costa Rica and Greece, and neither side was particularly accurate, but that is as far as the similarities between these teams go.  Greece was quick, made smart plays and passes, and broke up every attempt Los Ticos made to attack their end.  They had the lion's share of scoring chances, and never gave Cost Rica a glimmer of hope.

Let's talk about those scoring opportunities for a minute.  In the first half, Greece was 1 for 6 on shots.  Their only goal in the first half came on a completely uncontested corner kick which was easily slotted in by Nikolaidis at 17 minutes.  Every other attempt was far wide or rang off the crossbar.  There was even a chance at 33 minutes where the Greek forward had the keeper on the ground out of position and not a defender in sight.  You could not ask for a better scoring opportunity, yet the ball was shot wide (on the FAR side of the next!) and entirely wasted.  The second half would be only marginally better for the Ethniki, their second goal coming at 76 minutes from almost an identical repeat of the game winner, this time courtesy of Machlas.

The better team won the day, but raised some doubts as well.  If Greece can fix its shooting problems, it will be a serious threat.  If not, look to today to be as far as the Ethniki get.

Final result: 0 - 2 Greece

Ro16 Game 3: Netherlands vs Mexico

The Oranje pretty much ran the show here today.  They dominated possession, had more meaningful shots on goal, and were the only ones to get on the scoreboard.  Some of this is due to El Tri's nasty habit of shooting wide, no matter the circumstance.  The Netherlands were clearly the better side this match.

It was mostly a midfield affair, as the Oranje tried to set up plays and generate breakaways, while Mexico's possession was mostly spent barreling forward past as many orange jerseys as possible before firing a shot on goal.  As you can guess, this was not particularly effective, and left the Dutch keeper with little work to do.  A goal at 64 minutes by "No. 1" (FIFA 2002 does not have names for the Dutch squad) was all it took to put Mexico in the ground.

No surprises here, despite Mexico's fortunate and miraculous goal-tending in the group stages.  Ochoa could not save them here, and The Dutch live to fight another day.

Final result: 1-0 Netherlands

Ro16 Game 2: Colombia vs Uruguay

Another delicious match between two South American teams, this battle was fought largely on Colombia’s side of the pitch.  Uruguay dominated possession throughout the match, though due to poor accuracy, Colombia’s Oscar Cordoba was only forced to make two saves (all bark and no bite?)  Were it not for that, though, this game may have been lopsided in favor of La Celeste.  The Colombian defense was completely unable to contain Uruguay’s passing, and gave up many golden chances.

The first goal came about from just such a scenario.  In the 69th minute, Uruguay’s second corner kick found its man (as had the first).  The striker ripped a shot on net, but Cordoba managed to get a hand on it.  Unfortunately, however, Fellow Cafetero Bermudez undid his teammate’s work.  As he was sprinting into the box, the deflected ball went off his knee and into the Colombian net, counting as an own goal.

It seemed, then, that the match was over.  Uruguay was dominating by every conceivable metric.  They got too cocky, however, and paid for it.  Juan Pablo Angel received a breakaway pass in midfield and burned the out-of-position Uruguayan defense, running the ball all the way into the box before firing a shot that beat Uruguay’s Fabian Carini at the 85 minute mark.  The Colombians then held on through extra time to force a shootout.

The shootout was a quick and brutal affair.  All three Colombian players (Asprilla, Viveros, and the other Cordoba) beat the keeper by shooting bottom left, and Cordoba made three acrobatic saves to put Colombia through to the next round, where they will face mighty Brazil. Will their goalkeeping be enough to steal them another match?

Final result: 2-1 Colombia (SO)

Ro16 Game 1: Brazil vs Chile

The Brazilian fan above was certainly happy to see Chile's victory on the pitch a few days ago, but will he be so today? Let's find out.

The first game of the elimination bracket proved to be quite a thriller.  There was a lot of back-and-forth action, as well as a lot of good chances.  Brazil’s skill players were able to dribble past their men on most occasions, but their crosses were poorly placed and easily intercepted by the skilled Chilean pressure defense.  It was surprising to see just how ineffective the Seleção was this match.

Despite having less of the ball than their opponents, La Roja had the better chances through 90 minutes of play.  The majority of these chances were on breakaways, as Brazil’s offensive trap failed them.  The defenders could not keep up with the speedy Chilean offense, which lends itself well to their aggressive 3-5-2 formation.  However, whether through poor play or back luck, they were unable to finish any these chances.  Three rang off the posts after beating Brazil’s Rogerio Ceni, leaving Chile with 0 shots on goal after 90 minutes.

In the end, it all came down to a botched play in extra time. In the first period of OT at 103 minutes in, striker Mario Jardel intercepted a defensive cross and put it past Nelson Rios to win the game for the World Cup hosts. If they hadn't won, they'd probably never hear the end of it. Spain certainly won't.

Final result: 1-0 Brazil (OT)

World Cup Simulation 2014

Hello and welcome!

In this blog, I will be tracking and simulating the matches of the 2014 Brazil World Cup from the Ro16 onward.  I will be doing so via the best, most scientific tool for the job: FIFA 2002 on PS2.  The game will be played with the default 4 minute halves on World Class difficulty.

Posts will contain match write-ups, and possibly some ruminations of the differences and similarities observed between the simulation and real life.  Unfortunately, I can't simulate biting fouls, but I will do the best I can.

Let the games begin!